[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051702 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND...NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051702Z - 051930Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SERN ND/NERN SD
AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-20Z. 

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL
SD...SERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RUC/NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SURFACE
BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE REMOVING THE REMAINING CINH. IN ADDITION...SFC
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MN /NORTH OF
THE MSP AREA/. A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING
OFFSETS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS WITH A SFC PARCEL OF
LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S INDICATES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. 35 TO
40 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
SVR HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FAVOR OUTFLOW GENERATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC BASED CONVECTION INITIATES.
THE OVERALL LIMITED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SVR
THREAT TO MORE MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

47239273 47439415 46519696 45769877 45219895 44669820
44489783 44539671 44949471 45889284 46289259 

WWWW