[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051611 
FLZ000-051815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051611Z - 051815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE SERN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WHERE
SOME SURFACE HEATING IS POSSIBLE...EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER THE GULF WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
INSOLATION. LIMITED INSOLATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYING THE ONSET
OF THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...ONCE
ESTABLISHED...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN WEAK CAP. SOME
INTENSIFICATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD
INTO HENDRY COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 05/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

28528073 27138012 26448008 25548024 25358056 26448121
27588119 28338115 

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