[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042211 
TXZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042211Z - 042345Z

ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM OVER THE DAVIS MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD TOWARDS
THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND N.P AREA OF WRN/SWRN BREWSTER CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WRN DAVIS MTNS
THROUGH 00Z. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PROFILER DATA FROM WSM INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS OF WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND CONVERGENT
...AIDED BY A WEAK LEE SFC LOW EAST OF THE DAVIS MTNS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OVER THE JEFF DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTY INTERSECTION
/NEAR FST/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO FAR WRN BREWSTER CO.
MODERATE /40-45 KTS/ DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 73/46 AT MRF WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AROUND 01Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH.

..CROSBIE.. 05/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

30380309 30790366 30640409 30240401 29670392 29300376
29200358 29280321 29760306 30080301 

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