[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310411 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO W-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 107...

VALID 310411Z - 310545Z

THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 107 AREA...GENERALLY N OF I-20 AND E 0F
I-55.

AS OF 0345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AL MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD
AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND PLAN VIEW
VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG
35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AXIS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.
CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THUS LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS SRN MS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SRN
PORTIONS OF WW AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

..MEAD.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

33619031 33628738 30788870 30668934 31038935 31028984
31369007 31389133 

WWWW