[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310255 
ALZ000-FLZ000-310430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0855 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310255Z - 310430Z

ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF WW
107 BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER CNTRL AL.

AS OF 0235Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE
OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MS INTO W-CNTRL AL...GENERALLY SHIFTING
NEWD. STRONGEST STORM ON SERN FLANK OF COMPLEX OVER CLARKE COUNTY AL
AS EXHIBITED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE PAST HALF HOUR OR
SO AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LLJ AXIS WILL SHIFT
EWD ACROSS W/CNTRL AL OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING CONTINUED EWD/NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A FEW STORMS ALONG
SRN/SWRN FLANK OF COMPLEX MAY REMAIN MORE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS INTO
SWRN AL. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

32848741 33298709 33548643 32878584 31988597 31178652
30698723 30568789 30788828 31088831 31368752 31698752 

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