[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302324 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN IL...WRN IND AND SWRN MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 302324Z - 310130Z

GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF WW 106...WHERE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SRN CHI METRO AREA/NERN IL AND FAR NWRN IN THROUGH 02Z. FARTHER
SOUTH...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE BE PRODUCE PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL AND A MORE LIMITED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS ERN IL AND
WCENTRAL IND. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 105 BEFORE 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY
EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MI AFTER WW EXPIRATION TIME...BUT
DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ENOUGH OF A SVR THREAT FOR A NEW
WW.

STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT LOT VWP
DATA INDICATING 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 300 J/KG WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER TORNADO THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW
105 VALID TIME /02Z/ WILL REMAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS
AROUND 1 KM. FARTHER SOUTH IN WW 105...A PREDOMINANT NUMBER OF LEFT
MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH
A LESSER CHANCE OF TORNADOES. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM STL TO JUST WEST OF SPI MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL ISO SVR
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN AROUND 01Z.

..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

42428785 41368876 39988965 38988987 38458880 38528763
42168603 42918601 42858733 

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