[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301203 
MNZ000-IAZ000-301400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA AND SCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301203Z - 301400Z

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA
AND SCNTRL MN. THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE STRONG UPPER LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY
EWD THROUGH NERN KS WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK CURVING NEWD THROUGH
WRN MO.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS THE MO RVR AND RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT VCNTY KOMA MAY BE THE
START OF A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF STORMS.

00Z WRF AND 09Z RUC AGREE IN TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RVR BY
12Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN
IA AND SCNTRL MN.  A SMALL WARM SECTOR HAS EVOLVED OVER THIS AREA
AND GIVEN MID 50S/MID 40S TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS... MUCAPE OF
AROUND 750 J/KG IS LIKELY IN PLACE.  MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCREASING TSTM THREAT.

VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING
MID-TROP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN.  DAMAGING WINDS
MAY ALSO BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP...CONGEAL AND
BEGIN TO ORIENT NORMAL TO THE MEAN WIND VECTORS.

TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO SCNTRL
IA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
SPREADS FARTHER TO THE EAST.

..RACY.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41089578 42369615 42849645 45179483 45149343 44079314
42689357 41589395 40689483 

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