[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280906 
NCZ000-SCZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SRN NC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 280906Z - 281030Z

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND NUMBER OVER CNTRL/SRN SC SINCE
08Z.  SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS
OVER CNTRL/ERN SC AND A FEW OF THESE PARCELS ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE STORMS.  TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ELEVATED AND THE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER PROBABLY RANGES FROM 1500-2000 FEET THICK PER SOUNDING
ANALYSIS.  THUS...DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...THE PROBABILITY
OF DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE GROUND IS LOW...BUT NOT NECESSARILY
NON-ZERO.  SO...AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...
BUT RISK IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A CONVECTIVE WEATHER WATCH.  AS THE
STORMS MOVE FARTHER NE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EVEN WEAKER THAN
FARTHER SW...SO THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NC.

..RACY.. 03/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

32578093 33918099 34838125 35627944 34797743 33417737
31887991 

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