[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271850 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271850Z - 272115Z

THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN ARRIVING DYNAMIC ASCENT...INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO KY.
GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED NATURE OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY N/NW OF NRN
AL SFC CYCLONE/INVERTED TROUGH...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST ROBUST TSTMS.

AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...18Z OBSERVED BNA
RAOB/18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 750-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND
850 MB...AMIDST SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR ROTATING ELEVATED
STORMS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR EPISODIC
THREAT OF HAIL AROUND/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS.

..GUYER.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35568643 34818794 34938893 35618894 36848813 37668693
38328523 38418376 37938326 37658313 36968411 

WWWW