[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271813 
GAZ000-FLZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...

VALID 271813Z - 272015Z

RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS.  CONTINUE
WW.

STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE AT INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.  BROAD AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH THIS FORCING...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG BRANCH OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN/
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT...SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GA INTO THE
VALDOSTA GA/DOTHAN AL AREAS...LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH MODIFIES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  AS LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN CELLS
DEVELOPING NEAR/ACROSS THIS ZONE. BENEATH 35 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30758147 30718217 30858331 31028395 31328499 31838508
32298467 32338387 31878259 31678144 31548115 

WWWW