[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261914 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LA AND MS...SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261914Z - 262115Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY...RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

18Z SOUNDING FROM SLIDELL LA INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING SINCE 12Z.  DEEP NEAR SATURATED LAYER WITH HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO ENVIRONMENT
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WHICH HAS HEATED
INTO THE LOWER 80S.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
WEAKENS...INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY BY 21Z.  ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM
OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS ARE ALREADY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS MIXED
LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD
INCREASE.

..KERR.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29889338 30979349 32159246 32889126 32278906 31948834
31468771 30928738 30298758 

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