[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261842 
TXZ000-NMZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 261842Z - 262045Z

LIMITED RISK OF STRONG/ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST
 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.  THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...STRONG
COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT 500 MB JET DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY DESTABILIZING MECHANISM.  THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS NEXT FEW HOURS. 
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY AROUND
21Z...AS LOW-LEVELS COOL AND LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH.

..KERR.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33090557 33430516 33890472 33980414 33550350 32730325
31900336 31690396 31910506 32540563 

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