[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232150 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC INTO SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232150Z - 232245Z

WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF NC INTO SERN VA.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN VA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO 45 N RWI AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN NC TO
NWRN NC AT 40 N HKY.  A LEE TROUGH DELINEATING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST EXTENDED FROM THE COLD FRONT NW OF RWI SWWD TO
NEAR CAE.  AIR MASS LOCATED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER WRN NC AND S OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN DRYING THE LAST
FEW HOURS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA DETECTED AN INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN NC AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HAS SPREAD EWD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FURTHER AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NC
AND SERN VA AS THE UVVS SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

36488033 36747983 36757853 37207707 37317594 36597580
35847555 35417551 34937644 34757789 34887978 35088100
35368201 35978101 

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