[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230411 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230411Z - 230615Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS...

AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN TN IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AIRMASS IS
STILL TRYING TO RECOVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS
ARE ALSO FORMING IN THE FAVORED ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH 06-08Z TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. 

LATEST VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE TN SUGGESTS SFC-1KM SHEAR IS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 KT...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KT AND VEERING
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KM. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...DAMAGING WIND OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

UPON FURTHER REVIEW...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM
GIVEN CONTINUED BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY.

..TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

34348571 34348767 36318758 36338716 36278586 36168508
35918500 35378525 34918537 

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