[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212059 
TXZ000-OKZ000-212330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212059Z - 212330Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND REGION IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2030Z CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE
VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER 15S DUA SWD TO NEAR ACT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. JTN PROFILER SHOWS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX ATTM. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE
EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND REMNANT DOWNSTREAM BAND OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF NERN TX. ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG
IN THIS AREA WHICH IS WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NWRN OK. ISOLATED WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST
IN ADVANCE OF CONVERGENT AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS ARE SUSTAINABLE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. AREAS
OF N-CENTRAL TX FROM JUST EAST OF DAL TO ACT EWD INTO NERN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..BANACOS.. 03/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

32669668 33539650 33719638 33809570 33689524 33069490
31589510 31159561 30939612 30759669 30769696 31089745
31549708 

WWWW