[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150551 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-151145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NM...THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 150551Z - 151145Z

HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD
ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG 700 MB ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE 600-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS AZ/WRN NM. BANDED ECHO
PATTERN EVIDENT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY
SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
ECENTRAL NM...SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED SATURATION GIVEN RECENT OBS OF CEILING HEIGHTS IN
THE 4-8 KFT RANGE...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RECENT EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED ECHOES WILL LEAD TO THIS SATURATION OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. THUS THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A
ROSWELL NM TO CANADIAN TX LINE BY 12Z...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF CURRENT
WET BULB FREEZING LINE AND ANTICIPATED SEWD MOVEMENT OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. FARTHER NORTH...HVY SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND NERN NM/FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

..CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33390440 33550558 34230602 35910616 36650442 36500307
36090050 35450038 34340091 33770262 

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