[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150153 
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-150700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 150153Z - 150700Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD
WITH TIME.  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGLY CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW WITH AXIS
FROM CVS WWD INTO CENTRAL NM.  MODELS INDICATE BACKING SURFACE FLOW
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS
IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM / SERN CO.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME...WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY E AND NE FACING
SLOPES OF THE CO/NM SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.  COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THIS WILL CAUSE
SNOW RATES TO EXCEED 2 IN/HR IN THE MTNS WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR
POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE.  RAIN / SNOW
LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM
THE N WITH TRANSITION ZONE NEAR A ROW-SRR LINE BY MORNING.

..JEWELL.. 03/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35800561 36910536 37160444 36960381 36430314 36330183
35980159 35250320 34740371 34610399 34490478 34470567
34520643 34840641 35340644 35610573 

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