[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082102 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-082230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082102Z - 082230Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S
PLAINS -- PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND FAR SWRN OK AS WELL AS SWWD INTO
SERN NM -- IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  THOUGH A CONDITIONAL / LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT...WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS THIS
REGION FROM ROUGHLY LBB TO 35 W CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN NM.  DRY / DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS INDICATED
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.  THOUGH THIS DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /NEAR -20C/
AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE
HEATING HAS YIELDED IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE/.

ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /AOB 25
KT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE/ SHOULD LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY / LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR A MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL / WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  UNLESS CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE ORGANIZING TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW
WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33500284 33910213 34660027 34809958 34439935 33719971
32570134 32050288 31880474 32540529 33280516 

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