[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081913 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MA/NH/MAINE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 081913Z - 082315Z

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH
INTO MAINE...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVY
SNOW...FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH/DOWNEAST
MAINE...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

AT 18Z...APPROX 977 MB SFC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OFF OF LONG ISLAND
AROUND 85 SSE ISP...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED
ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND PROGRESS NEWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERSPREAD OF STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER /600-850 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY
FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION FROM MA INTO SRN
MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH 1-2 IN/HR
RATES LIKELY.

ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...15Z
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST FZRA/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH...BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND/AFTER 00Z OWING TO CAA/DYNAMIC
COOLING. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...A MORE PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF
FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF PWM-AUG-BGR-RKD AREAS
BETWEEN 21Z-00Z OWING TO ENCROACHMENT OF 750-850 MB WARM LAYER.

..GUYER.. 03/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

44267193 46227024 46976946 46756848 46306805 44746857
44106908 43457062 42357108 41967100 41777225 41947279
42417293 

WWWW