[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080758 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 080758Z - 080900Z

RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED/MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
ALLOW WW 46 TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED AT 09Z.  NEW WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE MACON AND
COLUMBUS GA AREAS.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH APPEARS TO MINIMIZING
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS REFLECTED BY LIMITED CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES IN LIGHTNING DATA.

SHALLOW NEUTRAL OR STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER ALSO APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF PEAK GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF LINE. 
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT SOME
ACCELERATION OF LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THUS...AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST
WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREAD INTO GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 11-12Z.

..KERR.. 03/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31138144 30958302 30898432 31368483 31978378 32478308
33098225 33488162 33618062 33977937 34037800 

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