[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080728 
FLZ000-080930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47...

VALID 080728Z - 080930Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.  NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS CURRENT WW /47/ EXPIRES AT 09Z.

PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTINUES...
AND...BY 12Z...INTENSE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.  INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING PATTERN...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...IS ALREADY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT...VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN BAND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE AND CROSS CITY AREAS.  ACTIVITY EXTENDS OFF
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO AXIS OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
CAPE.  THIS MAY STILL YET SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL TAKE ON
INCREASING NEUTRAL...THEN NEGATIVE TILT...ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE
CAROLINAS BETWEEN 12-18Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INLAND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA/FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS.

COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK. 
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/INCREASE IN SURFACE
HEATING/AND MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY NORTH OF A TAMPA/ VERO
BEACH LINE.

..KERR.. 03/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

28918636 29428530 29398425 29478305 30008185 29948126
29018037 27938012 27438043 27378191 27678294 27648414
27708494 28108629 28278664 

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