[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070226 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO THROUGH MUCH OF IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070226Z - 070430Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM
NERN KS...NWRN MO INTO MUCH OF IA. ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. AT
THIS TIME...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WW.

WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SEWD MOVING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH NRN MO AND IA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 03/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38909647 42019456 43179260 42269066 39919323 

WWWW