[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010537 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-011000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MASS/NH/SRN VT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 010537Z - 011000Z

MDT/HEAVY SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MASS TO TRANSITION NNEWD ACROSS SRN
NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON ALONG A
CON-PSM-PWM-AUG-BGR-BHB CORRIDOR /INCLUDING I-95/ THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONALLY...NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SRN
NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

AT 05Z...APPROX 985 MB SFC LOW /REF NANTUCKET 44008 BUOY/ CENTERED
APPROX 110 S OF ACK...WHICH IS ALREADY 1-4 MB DEEPER THAN 00Z
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND ATTM.
ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN EXTENT OF STRONG MID
LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS
SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...THUS PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS
FOR HEAVY SNOW. PER 03Z RUC/00Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...STRONG UVVS
COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC LAYER /WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
BELOW/ SUGGESTS MDT/HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.

WITH PERIPHERAL APPROACH OF DRY SLOT...PROXIMITY OF INCREASING
/ALBEIT WEAK/ POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MAY FURTHER ENHANCE SNOW
RATES...NAMELY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TOWARD 12Z. ADDITIONALLY...AS
ALREADY SEEN IN 1-2 KM LAYER OF BOX 88D VAD...03Z RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 50+ KT 850 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN
NH/DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH 09Z/12Z...WITH RESULTANT NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

..GUYER.. 03/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

45077018 45266890 45086712 44786704 44126871 43616999
42757041 41816993 41897176 42007299 42737316 43657222
44527135 

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