[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281709 
NDZ000-MTZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW/N CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281709Z - 281915Z

WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WOLF POINT MT
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 21Z.  

CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
WEAK...BUT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...HAS
BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA
PAST FEW HOURS.  CONTINUED NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.  STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION
LAYER...BUT RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE
IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

48330586 48920472 48700313 48790153 48710087 48080021
47320062 47250211 47480404 47540521 47770582