[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281708 
MIZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 281708Z - 281915Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

COLD FRONT NEAR APN WSWWD ACROSS LWR MI PENINSULA TO VICINITY MBL
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S.  AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT HAS
NOW BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN AS MLCAPES
HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WITH ABOUT 20KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER CONVECTION.  PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/BRIEFLY 
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.  ADDITIONALLY THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW
ENOUGH THAT SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

..HALES.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43898631 44388564 45098365 44608339 42958339 42228465
42548627