[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280437 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...EXTREME S-CENTRAL
SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN IA...EXTREME NRN MO...N-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543...

VALID 280437Z - 280600Z

WEAKENING TREND NOTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ALONG SD/NEB
BORDER...AND LACK OF REINTENSIFICATION OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS MAY PROMPT CANCELLATION OF WW 543 BEFORE
SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION.  OTHERWISE...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IN AND NEAR WWS AS OF 415Z...WITH ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT ACROSS MOST OF REGION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IA MCS NOW
EXTENDING FROM NWRN IL ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO NWWD INTO VICINITY OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER CASS COUNTY NEB FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD REPORTS AS WELL AS
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WARM
FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE THERE...WITH FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS
NWRN KS.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS STRONGEST ON NRN PORTION OF BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ.  THAT
REGIME IS RELATIVELY MOIST...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000
J/KG AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS DETERMINED FROM MODIFIED
RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA.  MUCAPE DECREASES WITH EWD
EXTENT INTO SRN IA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...HOWEVER ELEVATED WAA MAY
SUPPORT ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE
CELLS. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER SRN IA.

STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC-CNK...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES
1500-2000 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS ENTERING WRN
PORTIONS WW 541 MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF S-CENTRAL
NEB GIVEN FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN FOREGOING INFLOW REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...

40419522 40249671 39919700 39099743 38889766 38759804
38799875 39469966 40060028 40660142 41130114 41800087
43450070 43459815 41969832 42159520 42119437 41909337
41559286 40979259 40369278 40319422 

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