[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280408 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA
OF MI...SRN LS...EXTREME NWRN LM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542...

VALID 280408Z - 280545Z

MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS BROADLY ARCHING SQUALL LINE -- EVIDENT AT
4Z FROM EXTREME SERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MI SWWD THROUGH AUW AREA TO
ABOUT 50 WNW RST.  DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT ACTIVITY
GENERALLY IS WEAKENING AS GUST FRONT SURGES AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
CORES. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE
SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME
BEING ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR
SEVERE...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
E-CENTRAL UPPER MI TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SWRN WI.  WEAKENING
DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH EWD
EXTENT...HOWEVER...INDICATES DIMINISHING PROBABILITY FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF GUST FRONT BOUNDARY TO REMAIN
IN OPTIMALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW WITHOUT BEING UNDERCUT QUICKLY BY
OUTFLOW CURRENT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

43439124 45019227 47308738 45688632 

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