[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280116 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD...WRN
IA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280116Z - 280315Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM SEVERAL SOURCES.  WW LIKELY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCHING SWWD FROM ERN IA MCS
ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL MO TO CASS COUNTY NEB.  THIS BOUNDARY
TRANSITIONS TO WARM FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE WWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
NEB TO NEAR GRI...THEN SWWD TO NEAR MCK.  AIR MASS S OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONGLY HEATED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN
ANY ACTIVITY WHICH USES THAT AIR MASS FOR INFLOW DURING NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THIS INCLUDES TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST S-SW OMA...AND ONGOING
CONVECTION INVOF KS/NEB BORDER BETWEEN MCK-CNK. 
THEREAFTER...BOUNDARY LAYER ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY WILL DECOUPLE
AND THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF
BOUNDARY.  SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...OR WRN NEB/SWRN ND...IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES
1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN PART OF AREA...INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG NEAR
MO RIVER WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATER.  EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE
EVENTUALLY OVER ERN NEB.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

40879507 40419541 40119652 40090002 41109996 43880139
43919900 42969635 41699465 41029456 

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