[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271729 
MNZ000-271930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271729Z - 271930Z

THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS. 
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS BECOMING MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN NARROW TONGUE.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE
NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

MODELS SUGGEST DEFORMATION OF WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  HOWEVER...FORCING MAY
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-21Z. 
OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP/BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...NORTH OF BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 
THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND
EASTERN  ONTARIO...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

48039104 46949221 45429345 44469437 44039455 44579595
45369620 46539563 47989383 48599291 

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