[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271534 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 271534Z - 271730Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. 
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.

LITTLE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.  WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...INTO THE BERKSHIRES
AND CATSKILLS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY
PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD ENHANCE
ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.

..KERR.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

43227523 43517404 44527337 44807254 44877123 43347131
42467217 41907282 41727376 41797474 42247547 42647551 

WWWW