[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262059 
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-262300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...NERN CO...WRN NEB AND SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262059Z - 262300Z

HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF LEE TROUGH MAY
INTENSIFY AND POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER NWRN KS NWD INTO SWRN SD. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEE TROUGH.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23Z. 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL SD. A SFC LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SWRN SD...WRN NEB/INTO FAR
NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO. CONVECTION IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER
NERN CO AND ERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25-30 KTS INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ERN WY/NERN CO. DESPITE SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...EVEN EAST
OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE MID LVL WIND FIELDS FROM 30-40 KTS PER
REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AS
STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER INSTABILITY  /MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG/
EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS....WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. THUS
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

44130388 44390168 42530093 41130049 40180016 38919994
38770130 38730196 40430254 

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