[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252235 
NDZ000-MTZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME
SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252235Z - 260000Z

STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN
WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD.  OTHER ACTIVITY
OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS.  WW WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN
SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK
HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20
NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. 
SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS
JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW
TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO.  EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
REMAIN...
1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO
LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND
2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED
AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED.

ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM
AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT.  RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER
CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND
30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. 
WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS
WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 

45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219
41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556
44560684 44840724 

WWWW