[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242215 
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...

VALID 242215Z - 242345Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE WW AREA FOR
THE 2 HOURS.  A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
NEB/SWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS
NWWD FROM WCENTRAL NEB INTO NCENTRAL/NERN WY...SERN/SCENTRAL MT.
CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER NWRN WY/SWRN MT
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN
WY/SCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER SE...SVR STORMS OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SVR
AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 517 INTO WRN NEBRASKA/FAR SWRN SD OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE OVER THIS AREA EAST OF WW 517
BY 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

41020700 45770911 45720478 43630281 41010021 41010128 

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