[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211844 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 211844Z - 212045Z

STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  ALSO WWD MOVING
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM VICINITY OF DEN SSEWD TO ERN EL PASO COUNTY IS
LEADING EDGE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  AS THIS WWD
MOVING AIRMASS REACHES FRONT RANGE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
WITH ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS.  SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL  INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

..HALES.. 06/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

40820539 41270501 41250418 40800350 40380332 39500310
38780326 37910347 37750393 37800432 37780504 39560535 

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