[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202109 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT / NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202109Z - 202315Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60
F WELL INTO CENTRAL MT. MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING SHOWS AREA IS
UNCAPPED...WHILE RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS AREA WILL REQUIRE SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING BEFORE STORMS CAN SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
BLACK HILLS.

AREA WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. DUE TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...TORNADO THREAT IS NOT HIGH
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUPERCELLS MORPH INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

46130705 45250640 44860395 44680307 43910246 43780279
43910348 44160583 44090677 44360726 44880785 45440867
46050978 46431223 47491315 48311350 48941391 48910744 

WWWW