[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201913 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL NEBRASKA / SOUTH CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201913Z - 202115Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS SRN SD / NRN AND NWRN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD OUT OF SWRN SD INTO NWRN
NEBRASKA...WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. BOUNDARY
MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED FARTHER E INTO S CENTRAL SD WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.

LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FORCING IS QUITE UNFAVORABLE AT THIS
TIME...WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH CAPPING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY HORIZONTAL WAVE CLOUDS...CONTINUED HEATING
WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FURTHER WITH LBF AND RAP MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NEEDED TO ERASE CIN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
PROFILES AND FORCING ARE WEAK...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ORGANIZATION.

..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

43150277 43560032 44139912 43839845 42999813 42439891
42090036 41650188 41090249 41040330 41120394 43010416 

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