[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180212 
MTZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...

VALID 180212Z - 180315Z

THROUGH 03Z...APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS VALLEY COUNTY.

AS OF 0200Z...GGW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING 
TSTMS OVER NERN PHILLIPS COUNTY MOVING 235/40-45 KTS. IT APPEARS
THAT STRONG ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL IS
ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC AND REALIZE AT LEAST SOME PORTION
OF THE 2000-3000 MLCAPES OBSERVED ON THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING.

COLLISION OF THIS GUST FRONT WITH WWD MOVING BOUNDARY/MOISTURE SURGE
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL
VALLEY COUNTY. GIVEN OUTFLOW DOMINANT CHARACTER OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

..MEAD.. 06/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

49070894 49070541 46680493 46680829