[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140042 
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 474...

VALID 140042Z - 140215Z

MAIN AREA OF STORMS NOW EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA FROM NEAR MCW TO DSM
TO WEST OF LWD. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS GIVEN STORM STRUCTURES OBSERVED FROM DES MOINES
RADAR. CLARION IA IN WRIGHT CO RECENTLY GUSTED TO 41 KT...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE. WIND DATA FROM THE SLATER
IA PROFILER AND VWP DATA FROM DES MOINES IN ADDITION TO THE 00Z
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM OMAHA AND DAVENPORT ALL INDICATE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VEERING WINDS. MAIN CONCERN NOW WILL BE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT/BOW ECHO POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN IA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND MCS VECTORS WOULD SHIFT SYSTEM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW INTO CNTRL WI.

ANOTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOR SRN IA...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
MOVING NORTH OUT OF MO. STORM MODE IS SUPERCELLULAR...WHICH CARRIES
A BIGGER RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES. THESE CELLS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE BUT AS LONG AS THEY REMAIN
DISCRETE...THEY WILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT.

..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

40569323 40649450 41519408 43539437 43609228 43299167
42849144 41779178 40919196 40639223 

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