[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132215 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...476...

VALID 132215Z - 140015Z

CONTINUE WWS.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE CHICAGO AREAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PERHAPS
PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
THE ST. LOUIS AREA.  THIS IS WHERE STEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
EAST OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...IS FORCING MOIST PARCELS TO
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.  INHIBITION APPEARS STRONGER ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44/64...WITH STRONGER FORCING LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE ST. LOUIS MO/SPRINFIELD IL AREAS SHORTLY...INTO DECATUR/MATTOON/
CHAMPAIGN VICINITIES BY 01-03Z.

EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS IT SURGES INTO MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL
APPEARS LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS IN NEAR TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR
 BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE
NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

..KERR.. 06/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39059092 39909054 40499004 40838818 40538734 39708695
38908741 38408833 38438945 38409029 38419092 38629115 

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