[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131741 
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN AND ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131741Z - 131945Z

AS STORMS INITIATE AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE MO...ERN AND SRN IL...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT MAY
EXPAND EWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR WRN IND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN
AND ERN IL WHERE 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM SERN MO EXTENDING NWD INTO NERN IL. STORMS ARE
INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN SE MO AND FROM ROCKFORD IL
EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR JOLIET. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
ERN IL AND SE MO...THE CELLS ARE INITIATING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39658749 37828802 36718893 36819025 37409029 39148973
41098973 41888933 42118882 41928787 41028752 

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