[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130913 
ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND
NERN/ECNTRL MO

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 130913Z - 131115Z

THE 13Z DAY ONE OUTLOOK UPDATE /WHICH WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11Z WITH
ATTENDANT PWO/ WILL INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK BASED ON AFTERNOON
TORNADO/EVENING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN
MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND NERN/ECNTRL MO.

TORNADO RISKS:

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THIS
AFTERNOON.  SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE 65-70F DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY TODAY.  STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...LOW LCL/S AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DAMAGING WIND RISKS:

A SECONDARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL MO
INTO IL DURING THE EVENING.  H5 WIND MAX AOA 65 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID MO VLY UPPER LOW.  AS
A RESULT...TSTM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP SWWD FROM THE AFTERNOON UPPER
MS VLY CONVECTION IS APT TO DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHOES AND RAPIDLY MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF IL WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS AOA 65 KTS.

..RACY.. 06/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

43789324 44309222 44078998 43398906 41308798 39938761
38938809 38558942 38489076 40049257 40789307 42099328 

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