[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122313 
MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MO AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...

VALID 122313Z - 130115Z

CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467.

DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF 30 KT
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE
PLAINS.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SQUALL
LINE...AND ENHANCING SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG.  MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PEAK WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
WITH LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z...AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE
SPRINGFIELD/COLUMBIA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS...AND AREAS OF IOWA SOUTH
OF DES MOINES. 

DUE TO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LIKELIHOOD OF
WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER 02-03Z...NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA.  TRENDS WITH
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...

37299481 38439422 39749411 40259451 41299330 40439164
39079161 37899194 37219274 36799324 36379382 36159533