[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121635 
OKZ000-TXZ000-121800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ NRN
PERMIAN BASIN NEWD INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121635Z - 121800Z

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER OBSERVED DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM
ARMSTRONG COUNTY SSWWD TO HALE COUNTY. 15Z REESE AFB SOUNDING
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MOIST LAYER BENEATH A CAP IN THE
750-700 MB LAYER. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
8-9 C/KM...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG.

ACCOMPANYING REESE HODOGRAPH EXHIBITED VEERING/BACKING PATTERN BELOW
700 MB AND THEN PRONOUNCED BACKING ABOVE 500 MB.
NONETHELESS...ENOUGH VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN NM SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN CAPROCK/LOW ROLLING PLAINS NEWD
INTO SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. GIVEN MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY - WARM FRONT COMPOSITE/ AND MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO EXIST.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

33550207 34560169 35090133 35200038 35349987 35099937
34149947 32750067 32090170 32930224 

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