[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081958 
MIZ000-082200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081958Z - 082200Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN LOWER MI.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS OVER NCENTRAL LOWER MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
BEING IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH PULSE TYPE NATURE
OBSERVED WHILE CONVECTION IS BEING UNDERCUT BY LAKE BREEZE FRONT.
VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING N-S OVER WRN LOWER MI IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IN THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 1-2 HOURS/...WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...AS EVIDENT BY 18Z DTX SOUNDING WILL LIKELY MITIGATE A
GREATER SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NRN LOWER
MI. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE GRB VWP SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL
FLOW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 40 KTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV MOVING EWD
OVER ERN WI. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL
LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
AN INCREASING ORGANIZED SVR THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW GIVEN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

44938436 44728518 43838588 42968593 42478580 42488444
43128287 43968278 44758366 

WWWW