[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081922 
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-082115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH AND NWRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081922Z - 082115Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NRN NY AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO SRN VT/NH
AND ECENTRAL NY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN NY WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. AREA REMAINS ON
THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES FAVORS LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN AMT OF
INSTABILITY. LIMITED WIND STRENGTH /AOB 20 KTS/ IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43787193 44077364 44027481 43907514 43457539 43087528
42787417 42747258 42817168 43607147 

WWWW