[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081802 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081802Z - 082000Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

12Z UA ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN MCV WITH COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT /- 10 TO -11 DEG C AT 500 MB/
LOCATED OVER SWRN LA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC BOUNDARY AND
VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG HAS
ALREADY AIDED IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SWRN/WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. DESPITE VERY WARM
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DWPTS...MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z
JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/STORM MERGERS OCCUR.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

33059040 32469117 31999237 31539331 31159363 30399343
30129304 30429105 30679030 30998977 31908918 32868934