[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081803 
MOZ000-KSZ000-081830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...

VALID 081803Z - 081830Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 435 AND EXTEND INTO
ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO. 

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEB TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE AT 1730Z.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO
NEAR STJ...WITH THIS NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB.

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 4000+ J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THIS
REGION.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING SWWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD
SRN KS.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BOUNDARIES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

..PETERS.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39689602 39939543 39759366 40069178 38069179 37349290
37049453 37129664 37069742 38009692 

WWWW