[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081355 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-081500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0855 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN-CENTRAL MO/ERN KS/SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081355Z - 081500Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN-CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS AND SRN
IA.

WV IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE KS/NEB BORDER.  REGIONAL RADARS/
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN IA
ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF MCS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY ATTM.  VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SWWD INTO EAST CENTRAL KS.  

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY
SUGGEST THE NEW STORMS AND TCU ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS.  THE AIR MASS CAPPED ATTM...BUT STRONG SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MUCH OF MO/SRN IA AND WRN IL WILL WEAKEN
THIS CAP AS INDICATED BY CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF CINH AROUND
-100 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ATTM...THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEING FED INTO THIS REGION PER 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  THE NAM/RUC INDICATE THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT.  HOWEVER...THESE SPEEDS COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.  AS CAP WEAKENS...PRIND SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

40229470 40829445 41179351 40829241 39089193 37629228
36939285 36979436 37159556 37439598 39229510 

WWWW