[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080846 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...

VALID 080846Z - 081015Z

A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS ERN MN. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AND A NEW WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW MN INTO ERN NEB. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW
WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A HAIL THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOWN BY THE RUC OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. IN ADDITION...THE
LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN WI ALLOWING IT TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

45939003 43879048 43309137 43499360 44319430 46169386
46749307 46679119 

WWWW