[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061920 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061920Z - 062015Z

WW WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/
WRN OK PANHANDLE.

AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. 
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY 21-00Z.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU/CBS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT OVER SERN NM SWD INTO
FAR WEST/SWRN TX IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  FURTHER N...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AS
WELL...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 06/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

29210377 31170425 32430519 33730538 35430474 36840396
36900198 33520217 31320219 29140300 

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